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Odds of Hitting a Straight Draw

July 2, 2026

Straight draws come in two very different strengths, and lumping them together is a common way to misjudge a hand's real potential. An open-ended straight draw and a gutshot straight draw can look similar on the surface, but the gap in their completion odds is large enough to change how you should play each one.

Open-Ended Straight Draws

An open-ended straight draw happens when four consecutive cards are live on either end - for example, holding 8-7 on a board of 6-5-2, where any 9 or any 4 completes the straight. That gives you eight outs (four nines and four fours).

  • Chance to hit on the next card alone: 8 out of 46, about 17.4 percent.
  • Chance to hit by the river with two cards to come: roughly 31.5 percent, close to 1 in 3.

Using the rule of 2 and 4 shortcut: 8 outs x 4 = 32 percent for two cards to come, and 8 outs x 2 = 16 percent for one card - both close approximations to the exact numbers above.

Gutshot Straight Draws

A gutshot, also called an inside straight draw, needs one specific rank in the middle of the sequence. Holding 8-7 on a board of J-9-2 needs exactly a 10 to complete the straight - no other card works. That gives you only four outs.

  • Chance to hit on the next card alone: 4 out of 46, about 8.7 percent.
  • Chance to hit by the river with two cards to come: roughly 16.5 percent.

That is roughly half the strength of an open-ended draw. For a full explanation of how this shape of draw forms, see what is a gutshot.

Why the Distinction Matters at the Table

Because a gutshot has about half the outs of an open-ended draw, it needs a much better price to justify a call based on pot odds alone. Calling a large bet with only four outs is often a losing proposition unless you have strong implied odds - meaning your opponent is likely to pay off a big bet later if the straight lands - or unless the gutshot comes with extra outs, such as also pairing a card that could make two pair or trips.

Counting Outs Correctly

Before applying any odds, you first need an accurate outs count, since the whole calculation depends on it. The general process for finding your outs is covered in what are outs in poker. A few things to double check when counting straight outs:

  • Make sure none of your outs are already visible on the board (a card that is already dealt cannot also complete your hand).
  • Watch for flush possibilities that could reduce the strength of your straight even if it completes, since a straight can still lose to a flush or better.
  • Combo draws - holding both a straight draw and a flush draw at the same time - stack outs together and can turn a mediocre hand into a very strong one.

Open-Ended vs. Gutshot in Practice

A simple table to keep in mind while playing:

  • Open-ended straight draw: 8 outs, about 32 percent with two cards to come.
  • Gutshot straight draw: 4 outs, about 17 percent with two cards to come.
  • Flush draw for comparison: 9 outs, about 35 percent with two cards to come, detailed in odds of hitting a flush draw.

Adjusting Your Strategy by Draw Strength

Open-ended draws are strong enough to call reasonably sized bets in many spots, and can sometimes be semi-bluffed profitably. Gutshots generally need a cheap price, a deep stack for implied odds, or an additional source of equity like a backdoor flush draw or overcards to be worth continuing with against significant pressure.

Test These Draws for Free

The fastest way to internalize these numbers is repetition at the table. Play free Texas Hold'em at Poker House, our Wild-West saloon game with Chips and Gems and no real-money gambling, and start spotting the difference between a live open-ender and a thin gutshot in real hands.

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